Metaculus

Metaculus is a forecasting platform and aggregation engine. Its FAQ says plainly that it is "not a prediction market". You don't trade. You give a probability by moving a slider on a question page, and you can update it until the question closes.

The Community Prediction for each question is a recency-weighted median of forecasts. Bots are left out of it by default. Forecasters get Baseline and Peer scores and can earn medals. Question types include binary, numeric, date, multiple choice, groups and conditional pairs.

Tournaments and question series pay cash prizes from a prize pool, with medals for accuracy, comments and question writing. Metaculus publishes an open-source bot template (metac-bot-template on GitHub) for people who want to enter AI forecasting bots. These bots forecast questions. They don't trade.

Other features: NewsMatch pairs news articles with questions, using MIT's Improve the News. There's also the Metaculus Journal, and an API whose docs it says are still being worked on. Its terms also mention an MCP server and an AI product called Radiant.

Cost: no price is shown for forecasting, and the FAQ lists no fee to forecast. Paid products exist for organizations, such as private domains and hired Pro Forecasters.

You must be 16 or older. Users between 16 and the age of majority must review the terms with a parent or guardian. Only one account per person is allowed, under your real name.

Researchers and forecasters who want scored forecasts and long-range questions, and anyone curious about AI forecasting bots.

Skip it if you want market prices or real-money trading. Metaculus has neither.

No fee to forecast (Metaculus FAQ). Private domains and Pro Forecaster projects are paid products for organizations. Source: metaculus.com/faq and terms-of-use (last modified Sep 21, 2026), checked Oct 14, 2026. Check the official site.

• No fee to forecast, and no trading, so no money at risk.
• A clear aggregate: the Community Prediction is a recency-weighted median, with bots left out by default.
• Baseline and Peer scores and medals build a public track record.
• Tournaments with cash prizes, plus an open-source bot template for AI forecasting.
• Many question types: binary, numeric, date, multiple choice and conditional pairs.

• Not a market, so no prices backed by money.
• One account per person, under your real name, which some people won't want.
• Commenting only unlocks 12 hours after signup.
• The API docs are still being worked on, per Metaculus.

Metaculus vs FutureSearch for AI forecasting research. FutureSearch is a paid AI service. It starts with $20 of free credit, then $20, $99 or $500 a month, and it writes researched forecasts for you. Metaculus has no fee to forecast. It shows a community median, scores forecasters and runs bot tournaments. Pick FutureSearch if you want an AI to research a question for you. Pick Metaculus if you want to forecast yourself, compare against the crowd, or test a bot.

1. Register an account. One account per person, under your real name.
2. Pick a question and read its resolution criteria.
3. Move the slider to set your probability. You can update until the question closes.
4. Check your Baseline and Peer scores as questions resolve.
5. Commenting unlocks 12 hours after signup. Usernames can be changed free within 3 days, then once every 180 days.