PredictIt

PredictIt is a political prediction market. It is run by a non-profit, the Prediction Market Research Consortium. It is not a registered exchange. It operates under no-action relief from CFTC staff, most recently in CFTC Letter 25-20, dated Jul 14, 2025. No-action relief means CFTC staff have said they won't recommend enforcement if PredictIt keeps to set conditions.

Those conditions shape the product. You can hold at most $3,500 per contract. The old cap of 5,000 traders per market was removed in the 2025 letter. The markets are political: elections and policy questions.

Its history has bumps. The CFTC withdrew PredictIt's relief on Aug 4, 2022 (Letter 22-08). PredictIt kept running under court protection while it fought that in Clarke v. CFTC. On Jul 14, 2025 the CFTC amended the relief in Letter 25-20. On Jul 22, 2025 a federal court in western Texas entered final judgment for PredictIt, vacating the 2022 and 2023 letters.

Fees changed recently. In a Sep 23, 2026 press release, PredictIt said it now takes 10% of profit on winning trades, with free ACH deposits and free standard withdrawals. The full fee and rules list is below.

Its Terms and Conditions limit participation to people 18 or older who are U.S. Persons, meaning a US citizen anywhere or a resident alien. Laws change, check your state.

People who only care about political markets and want small, capped positions.

Skip it if you want sports, economics or anything beyond politics, or you want to trade more than $3,500 on one contract.

Fees and rules. You must be 18 or older and a U.S. Person. You need a $10 minimum balance or deposit to start trading. You can hold up to $3,500 per contract. The trading fee is 10% of profit on winning trades. ACH deposits and standard withdrawals are free. One card deposit per user, up to $1,000, is free; later card deposits carry a 3% fee. Withdrawals are held for 30 days after a deposit. If you don't log in for 12 months or more and have a positive balance, you pay $2 a month. Sources: predictit.org/terms-and-conditions (read Oct 14, 2026) and PredictIt's Sep 23, 2026 press release. Checked Oct 14, 2026. Check the official site.

• Its Terms and Conditions spell out the rules in one place: who can join, the $10 minimum, and the 30-day withdrawal hold.
• The $3,500 per-contract cap keeps losses on any one question bounded.
• A long-running, single-purpose political market with clear CFTC staff conditions in a public letter.

• Politics only. No sports, economics or weather.
• $3,500 cap per contract, which limits anyone who wants larger positions.
• Not a registered exchange. It relies on staff no-action relief, which was withdrawn once before.
• Withdrawals are held for 30 days after a deposit, so money you put in isn't quickly available.

PredictIt vs Kalshi for political markets. Kalshi is a full CFTC exchange and lists politics alongside economics, sports and more. PredictIt only does politics and works under staff relief, not an exchange license. The fees work differently. Kalshi charges a small fee on each trade, at most 1.75¢ per contract. PredictIt's announced fee is 10% of profit on winners, with no per-trade fee listed. If you make a few small political trades, PredictIt's model is simple. If you trade often or want other topics, Kalshi fits better. Kalshi's own political markets are blocked in Washington.

1. Read CFTC Letter 25-20 (cftc.gov/csl/25-20/download) to see the conditions PredictIt runs under.
2. Note the $3,500 per-contract cap.
3. Read PredictIt's Sep 23, 2026 fee announcement, then confirm the fees on predictit.org.
4. Read the terms at predictit.org/terms-and-conditions: 18+ and U.S. Persons only.